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North Korea & Trump - Recipe for Disaster? (STA BREAKING NEWS and ARCHIVES)

by chazzz @, USA, Thursday, July 06, 2017, 12:25

This past July 4th North Korea fired off its largest missile so far. It has sufficient range to reach at least to Alaska. They are widely rumored to have around a dozen or more completed nuclear bombs - At least some of which may be small enough to put on a missile. The latest assessment is that by 2020 they can reach the US West Coast with multiple nuclear tipped missiles. In addition to these, North Korea is known to have a modest number of submarines which could also be a means of attacking the West Coast of the USA in the event of an all out war.

Speaking of just conventional weapons, it is expected that there are enough pre-positioned conventional weapons on or near the Korean border to possibly kill up to 10’s of thousands of South Korean civilians and/or thousands of US military personnel stationed in South Korea near the North/South border. While the US and South Korea have the technological edge and air power edge, if war broke out it would take at least several days to neutralize North Korean conventional weapons.

The ruling Kim family of North Korea considers it to be the embodiment of North Korea and any perceived attempt to decapitate North Korea by taking out Kim Jong-un would be considered by them as equal in effect to attempted complete destruction of all of North Korea. So the reaction to a perceived attempt on Kim Jong-un would be exactly as the US and Soviets considered during the Cold War - to be met with every weapon they possessed, including nuclear weapons.

North Korea has been continuous under economic sanctions for the past 20 years more or less. That has not broken the will of the rulers nor made the populace rebel. Political control of the people, the military, and the ruling elite is total and has been continuous since before the Korean War in 1950. There is no likelihood that North Korea will collapse any time soon regardless of what the US or China does.

Donald Trump is under tremendous political pressure inside the USA over a variety of things, but most threatening to his continued term as President are the possibility that someone or several someone's in his campaign colluded with Putin’s Russia. The most likely impeachable charge would be obstruction of justice by firing the head of the FBI (James Comey) who was investigating Trump’s campaign links to Russia. It is purely up to Congress to decide if this is an impeachable offense or not as the constitution is the intentionally vague on “high crimes and misdemeanors”. No further evidence would be required beyond Trumps own words if Congress willed it.

Donald Trump is not politically sophisticated, but he has toughness and good instincts for what resonates with his supporters. And as long as he has significant support among the Republican base and the Republicans are a majority in Congress, he is safe from impeachment. My worry is that as long as some justification can be found, the USA has always rallied around its president for war, at least for a few years until the casualties build up and the war looks un-winnable. Trump might make that connection either logically or instinctually. No one in the USA is pro Kim Jung Un, and no one wants to go back to Cold War conditions living under threat of nuclear attack from North Korea. There are other and larger nuclear states, but none of them have the US officially in its sights. And Trump does not care about international opinion.

The options Trump has in addressing North Korea are mostly used up except to either recognize North Korea as having a deterrence against the USA and making the best of an uncomfortable situation or in attacking North Korea with a preemptive attack attempting to remove the nuclear, long range missile, submarine, and major conventional weapons stationed near the North/South Border. Unfortunately, North Korea has had sixty years to insulate its command chain from air strikes and the key nuclear and missile producing sites are heavily hardened in deep caves. My opinion is that only US tactical nuclear strikes could hope to achieve these goals and prevent the massive counter strike against South Korea’s civilian population and US forces in South Korea and Japan. The problem with these is that I doubt the US knows exactly where all the North Korean nuclear warheads are at any given time. Their missile launchers are mobile and there are those few submarines to worry about.

I fear that President Trump may be feeling like he is in survival mode and calculate or intuit that the US forces can prevent significant loss to US service personnel and prevent nuclear or nerve gas attacks on the US (North Korea also has a significant chemical arsenal). He might figure that he would be the hero if he can eliminate the nuclear threats North Korea is making. Unfortunately both Trump and the US Military establishment has some history or over-confidence. And that is my big worry….

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Chazzz

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