HURRICANE CHARLEY'S SHARP TURN BAFFLES SCIENTISTS

by Theresa, Wednesday, August 18, 2004, 21:36

Hurricane Charley's sharp turn baffles scientists

15:48 16 August 04

NewScientist.com news service

A last-minute swerve to the right by Hurricane Charley which devastated the coastal Florida town of Punta Gorda over the weekend, has baffled experts.

The 258 km/hour hurricane that flattened the US town on Friday afternoon, killing at least 20 people and injuring many others, was predicted to hit land 70 miles further north, but changed direction within minutes of the coast.

“There was a sudden intensification and a veering to the right of track, and we’re all trying to work out why,” said Mark Saunders, a tropical storm expert from Benfield Hazard Centre at University College London, UK.

Climatologists use a range of physical parameters, including sea surface-temperature, wind speed and direction to predict the path and force of hurricanes up to five days in advance of land strike, but with so many factors involved hurricanes remain fairly unpredictable.

“Seasonal forecasts, based on the temperature of the sea and the strength of the east/west trade winds between Africa and the Caribbean â€" which give the amount of vorticity [stirring-up] â€" can tell scientists whether hurricane activity will be greater or lower than average. This season is above average, with eight hurricanes predicted to strike the US in total,” Saunders told New Scientist.

And further devastation may come from hurricane Earl â€" the fourth of the eight. “We expect Earl to strike Central America, just north of Belize City, on Thursday morning, from where it should travel in a weakened state across the Yucatan peninsula to the Gulf of Mexico,” says Saunders.

FULL ARTICLE:
http://www.newscientist.com/news/news.jsp?id=ns99996285